激情快播

Summer 2015 | By Mary Frances Emmons

鈥淟et me tell you a story,鈥� says Cuban-American poet Cecilia Rodr铆guez Milan茅s, 鈥渟o you know where I鈥檓 coming from.鈥�

Born in the U.S. to Cuban parents, the 激情快播 associate professor of English first traveled to the island in the late 1970s, 鈥渨hen Castro opened doors to the exile community.鈥� She remembers visiting family in Havana and in the much poorer interior, where her relatives made do with thatched roofs and dirt floors. 鈥淲hen you think of campesinos [farmers], that鈥檚 exactly what they were,鈥� she says. 鈥淰ery little backyard, a chicken or two 鈥� that鈥檚 all they owned. Everything else belonged to the pueblo, the government.鈥�

Fast-forward to 2011 and another trip to Havana. She noticed that a cousin her age had an Acer computer 鈥渏ust like mine, with a huge monitor, and I was, like, 鈥榃hat?!鈥� 鈥� 鈥淪o of course we had to go to the interior. But there, their lives had not changed. They were just as poor as they had been,鈥� with open pipes where faucets should have been and a toilet that worked 鈥渨ith a bucket,鈥� she says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a contrast I didn鈥檛 expect to see.鈥�

This tale of two Cubas 鈥� of the divide between the bold and eager to modernize and the vulnerable and impoverished 鈥� is what Cuba experts in the 激情快播 community warn will be one of the many challenges faced by the U.S. as it tries to overcome 50 years of distrust and move toward a new normal.

Not So Fast

On Dec. 17, 2014, pundits everywhere hailed a thawing in the five-decade freeze between the United States and Cuba, dissolving the last remnants of the Cold War. But many authorities are sounding a more cautious note: It may be a long while until there鈥檚 a true flow of ideas, goods and travelers between these neighbors separated by 90 miles of open water and more than a century of misunderstanding.

鈥淚鈥檓 not sure how much of a thaw we鈥檙e really going to see,鈥� says international relations researcher , a lecturer in the who is of Cuban ancestry. 鈥淭otally open trade and tourism won鈥檛 be possible in the immediate future because of laws passed on our side.

鈥淎 host of technical details could be stumbling blocks to whether we move ahead,鈥� Vasquez says, citing Republican opposition in Congress, the future of the U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay and support for Cuban dissidents 鈥� although the removal of Cuba in May from a U.S. list of states that sponsor terrorism eliminated one major hurdle to normalization. Vasquez predicts that internal politics in the U.S. may play a greater role in how the process unfolds than any discussions between the two nations.

鈥淚t鈥檚 more of a thawing than a thaw,鈥� says , who studies international tourism demand on small economies. 鈥淭here鈥檚 always been a fascination with Cuba in the U.S. and the challenge it represented, especially with the large Cuban population in Florida,鈥� says the associate dean of administration and finance. 鈥淔rom a tourism perspective, it鈥檚 something new and different; it [has fired] the imagination of Americans 鈥� for 50 years 鈥� and they will want to visit, for sure.

鈥淚n the long term, a lot depends on how things on the ground play out,鈥� says Croes. 鈥淲hat will be the real policies of the Cuban government? That鈥檚 the wild card here.鈥�

Ironically, according to Vasquez, the convictions that led the Obama administration to make this overture may hamper its progress. 鈥淥bama has tried to deal diplomatically without making a sustained, public media offensive in the U.S. as to why [restoring relations] might be a good thing,鈥� he says. 鈥淲ithout effort at home to remind the public what those reasons are, it makes it easier for critics to take potshots.鈥�

More Harm Than Good?

Assuming that normalization proceeds, the effect of re-establishing relations is likely to be complicated for Cubans and may bring more harm than good, some 激情快播 experts fear.

The possible positive effects are easy to comprehend: The introduction of retailers like Wal-Mart and The Home Depot could mean 鈥淐ubans will finally have access to goods that they could not afford previously,鈥� says associate professor of economics Mark Soskin. 鈥淚t will be a huge boon to their quality of life and standard of living.鈥� But according to , the personal cost of that prosperity may be higher than the average Cuban is prepared to pay.

鈥淗aving followed the way in which the thaw is coming along, I don鈥檛 see positive change for the Cuban people,鈥� says the 激情快播 professor of history, who was born on the island and raised in the U.S. and Latin America. For foreign capital to succeed in Cuba, 鈥渋t will depend on continuation of an authoritarian regime that limits Cuban labor, limits labor unions, limits Cuban workers,鈥� Mart铆nez-Fern谩ndez explains. He says U.S. businesses are motivated to enter Cuba not out of humanitarian or democratic interests but 鈥渢o create a miniature floating China 90 miles from the U.S. coast.鈥�

Soskin agrees that much depends on whether Cuba decides to take 鈥渁 China path,鈥� which he describes as when countries enact a business plan that 鈥渟hortcuts what the U.S. does, leaving out some of the messy things like democracy鈥� and a free economy. 鈥淢y biggest concern is we鈥檒l go back to 1898,鈥� says Mart铆nez-Fern谩ndez. 鈥淐uba was bankrupt, and the Cuban elite had been impoverished by 30 years of war. [The elite] lost control, and U.S. capital flowed in without the ability of Cubans to contest. It created an economy of enclaves.鈥�

Returning U.S. investment could re-establish such enclaves 鈥� enormous resorts, major port facilities, 鈥渁reas in which U.S. capital dominates, similar to how the sugar plantations used to be,鈥� Mart铆nez-Fern谩ndez explains. 鈥淲hat I see is a rather unholy alliance between extreme capitalism and authoritarianism on the island. It鈥檚 a wonderful opportunity for Ra煤l [Castro] to prop up an insolvent regime without having to yield any power. Cuban dissidents have been vocal in warning that the U.S. should not give allowances to the Cuban government without demanding better human rights.鈥�

鈥淐uba needs the United States more than the United States needs Cuba,鈥� says , dean of the 鈥淭he issue of human rights in Cuba must be at the top of the agenda.鈥�

The price of normalization for the Cuban government could be higher expectations of exactly those sorts of rights, says political scientist Vasquez. 鈥淚 would expect the Cuban government will change its policies to help the average Cuban or face greater threat of revolution. Normalizing takes away the Cuban government鈥檚 biggest excuse. They can鈥檛 use Uncle Sam as the fall guy.鈥�

Writer Rodr铆guez Milan茅s also worries what the future may bring. 鈥淲hat I would hope is that the island doesn鈥檛 get divvied up again by corporations,鈥� she says. 鈥淢ultinationals have no allegiances. How do we help [the Cubans] without destroying all their resources?鈥�

A Sweet Deal

The effects of a relations thaw on the U.S. are likely to be less obvious, because of differences in the size of the populations and economies, according to Soskin. And Americans could be in for some surprises.

One positive change could be lower prices in U.S. restaurants and grocery stores, the economist explains. Soskin says the trade embargo has contributed to U.S. consumers paying among the world鈥檚 highest sugar prices, and the warming relationship could help that situation. 鈥淭here鈥檚 an enormous movement back to sugar in the U.S. as a preferential ingredient of choice. An end to the embargo would mean a substantial decline in prices for all kinds of food products in supermarkets and eating places, as well as export opportunities for U.S. food manufacturers.鈥�

On the downside: According to Croes, the U.S. is already seriously late to the party in Cuba.

鈥淩ight now Cuba has a lot of tourists already, from other countries,鈥� he says. 鈥淐uba already knows about tourism. Will [businesses] like Travelocity be allowed to operate there? Will companies like that be allowed to participate in the process? Will the market be allowed to function?鈥�

Then there鈥檚 the question of Cubans living in the United States. 鈥淲hat will happen with their compensation, the expropriation of their property [from 50 years ago]?鈥� Croes asks. 鈥淎ll these are open questions right now.鈥�

The Heart of the Matter

The rift between Cuba and the United States isn鈥檛 just political 鈥� it鈥檚 social, cultural and highly emotional. And according to some Cuban-Americans, each side has an image of the other that may be hard to give up.

鈥淎mericans who are not of Cuban descent have a hard time understanding what it鈥檚 like to have your family torn apart,鈥� says Cristina Calvet- Harrold, 鈥�01, a first-generation Cuban-American. 鈥淭hey only see the island as a new place to vacation, not what their dollars will support by visiting.鈥�

For her mother, Olga Calvet, 鈥�71, an exile born in Cuba who now serves as chair of the 激情快播 board of trustees, rapprochement with the Castro regime strikes close to the bone.

鈥淵ou have to understand that no matter what transpires, there are still a lot of feelings exposed after all these years,鈥� Calvet says. 鈥淸Many people] lost everything they had worked for, lost family, had to start lives all over again as exiles. It hurts. Those feelings are very raw.鈥�

It doesn鈥檛 help that a generation after the revolution, Americans not of Cuban descent often don鈥檛 have a cultural context for the situation, Rodr铆guez Milan茅s explains.

鈥淭here鈥檚 always been this beautiful, romantic image of Cuba that came from people who were capitalists and upper-class people [who] went there as their playground 鈥� this paradise in the Caribbean with casinos and resorts and shows,鈥� she says. 鈥淲hen the revolution surged, it became a romantic leftist paradise. So many writers I admire talked about revolutionary Cuba as a great thing, and I was like, 鈥楴o, you don鈥檛 really know what it鈥檚 like.鈥欌�漈oday Rodr铆guez Milan茅s is living the duality faced by the Cuban diaspora.

鈥淧eople sometimes say, 鈥榃hen did you leave Cuba?鈥� I guess I never left,鈥� the American-born writer explains. 鈥淚鈥檓 not from there, but I am. That鈥檚 my heritage, my husband鈥檚 heritage, my children鈥檚 heritage. I would love to be able to go back and forth, to have normal relations 鈥� not just country to country, but people to people.鈥� And how to achieve that? 鈥淲e need to listen to what Cubans want. Not the leaders, but the people on the street, in the interior, in the market,鈥� Rodr铆guez Milan茅s says. 鈥淚 know they want freedom to express themselves, to not be afraid, to communicate with loved ones, to travel.鈥�

Listening with a poet鈥檚 ear, Rodr铆guez Milan茅s seems to capture what Cubans and Cuban-Americans both hope and fear, expressed in the last stanza of her poem 鈥淐uban American Manifesto鈥�:

“Just because I let you in my house
don鈥檛 mean you can take my stuff
because mi casa no es tu casa
and mi coraz贸n, my soul is
not for sale.”

Illustrations by Jonathan Burton